RESUMO
ObjectiveThe outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) imposed a substantial health burden in mainland China and remains a global epidemic threat. Our objectives are to assess the case fatality risk (CFR) among COVID-19 patients detected in mainland China, stratified by clinical category and age group. MethodsWe collected individual information on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases from publicly available official sources from December 29, 2019 to February 23, 2020. We explored the risk factors associated with mortality. We used methods accounting for right-censoring and survival analyses to estimate the CFR among detected cases. ResultsOf 12,863 cases reported outside Hubei, we obtained individual records for 9,651 cases, including 62 deaths and 1,449 discharged cases. The deceased were significantly older than discharged cases (median age: 77 vs 39 years, p<0.001). 58% (36/62) were male. Older age (OR 1.18 per year; 95%CI: 1.14 to 1.22), being male (OR 2.02; 95%CI: 1.02 to 4.03), and being treated in less developed economic regions (e.g., West and Northeast vs. East, OR 3.93; 95%CI: 1.74 to 8.85) were mortality risk factors. The estimated CFR was 0.89-1.24% among all cases. The fatality risk among critical patients was 2-fold higher than that among severe and critical patients, and 24-fold higher than that among moderate, severe and critical patients. ConclusionsOur estimates of CFR based on laboratory-confirmed cases ascertained outside of Hubei suggest that COVID-19 is not as severe as severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome, but more similar to the mortality risk of 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in hospitalized patients. The fatality risk of COVID-19 is higher in males and increases with age. Our study improves the severity assessment of the ongoing epidemic and can inform the COVID-19 outbreak response in China and beyond.
RESUMO
Objective To explore and discuss the factors for restricting the two-way referral system from the patient's perspective in order to promote the formation of hierarchical medical system in Changsha City.Methods The stratified random sampling method was adopted to divide the Chansha City into the 3 grades of high,middle and low according to the regional economical development situation,2 districts in one grade,including 6 districts.Then each district was redivided into high,middle and low grades according to the economic situation,2 basic medical institutions were selected from each grade.A total of 360 patients were randomly sampled for conducting the questionnaire investigation.The patients and doctors specially participating in the two-way referral conducted the deep interview.Results The patients choosing to primary hospital for first visit accounted for 60.9％.The awareness degree of patients to two-way referral system was 21.1％,and the two-way referral service satisfaction in the patients with two-way referral was 85.7 ％.The patients' will of transfer treatment from primary hospital to superior hospital in case of disease condition need was 82.9 ％.The patients' will for conducting rehabilitation treatment from superior hospital to primary hospital was 77.6 ％.Conclusion Few patients choose primary hospital for first visit.The signing rate of family contract services is low and awareness degree of two-way referral system is not high.
